Economists raise 2010 growth outlook for Singapore to 6.5%

Economists have upped their growth outlook for Singapore as the city-state's key industries continue to rebound from last year's recession, according to a central bank poll.


The Monetary Authority of Singapore's survey of 20 private-sector economists showed they expected average growth of 6.5 per cent this year, higher than the previous forecast of 5.5 per cent in December.

The economists also raised their outlook for the island-state's major industries including manufacturing, which is now predicted to expand an annual 9.7 per cent this year - higher than the previous forecast of 6.3 per cent.

Wholesale and retail trade is seen growing 8.4 per cent instead of 7.0 per cent while construction is tipped to expand 8.9 per cent, from a previous projection of 7.1 per cent.

The government in February upgraded its 2010 economic growth outlook to 4.5-6.5 per cent from 3.0-5.0 per cent.

Singapore's economy contracted 2.0 per cent last year due to the global economic downturn. But it has managed to pull out of recession and rebounded strongly.

Improving global trade and continued consumption by major Asian markets like China spurred a rapid recovery in the beginning of this year.

Song Seng Wun, regional economist at CIMB-GK Research, said: "We see a very strong start to the year for the manufacturing sector, led by the pharmaceuticals sector, as well as a firmer contribution from the tech sector itself. So, collectively it looks like we're off to a very strong start for the year, and for the first quarter. Indeed the first-half performance may lift the overall figures for the full year itself."

Private-sector economists surveyed by the central bank said they expected GDP growth of 9.5 per cent for the first quarter.

Sector-wise, they said the long-term prospects for the financial services sector remain strong although it is expected to lag behind the others in the first quarter.

David Cohen, director of Asian economic forecasting at Action Economics, said: "Those numbers can fluctuate quarter on quarter, and as far as the financial services, the outlook is still bright in the long term. The fact that the stock market has bounced back nicely from a year ago should help support investment activity."

As for 2011, GDP growth estimates for Singapore came in at 5.5 percent. Experts said the lower expectation is the result of the inventory restocking cycle being over, and concerns over the pace of recovery in the more developed OECD economies.

- CNA/yb/ir